X FLare Pressure Now Arriving/12 Noon EDT

The CME launched toward Earth by yesterday's X-flare is moving faster than originally thought. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have revised their forecast accordingly, advancing the cloud's expected arrival time to XXXXX, on Saturday, July 14th. Weekend auroras are likely. Video UPDATE by Mr Comet Watch http://www.mrcometwatch.com The sun has unleashed a violent solar flare Thursday afternoon known as an X-class flare, the most powerful sun flare possible. NASA and the Space Weather Prediction Center put out an alert Thursday advising that the giant sunspot known as AR1515 had become unstable, unleashing the solar flare directly towards earth. Because the flare erupted directly towards Earth, it has sent several waves of charged particles towards our planet bringing the likelihood of a northern lights display Friday night and causing a strong radio blackout for some high-frequency communications systems. In the alert announcing the X-class solar flare, SWPC officials said the sun storm could cause a "wide-area blackout" in the high-frequency radio communications. Solar Flares

Flare Characteristics Solar flares are tremendous explosions on the surface of the Sun. In a matter of just a few minutes they heat material to many millions of degrees and release as much energy as a billion megatons of TNT. They occur near sunspots, usually along the dividing line (neutral line) between areas of oppositely directed magnetic fields. Flares release energy in many forms - electro-magnetic (Gamma rays and X-rays), energetic particles (protons and electrons), and mass flows. Flares are characterized by their brightness in X-rays (X-Ray flux). The biggest flares are X-Class flares. M-Class flares have a tenth the energy and C-Class flares have a tenth of the X-ray flux seen in M-Class flares. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) monitors the X-Ray flux from the Sun with detectors on some of its satellites. Observations for the last few days are available at NOAA's website for Today's Space Weather.

Flare Observations Solar flares are often observed using filters to isolate the light emitted by hydrogen atoms in the red region of the solar spectrum (the H-alpha spectral line). Most solar observatories have H-alpha telescopes and some observatories monitor the Sun for solar flares by capturing images of the Sun every few seconds. The images at the left are from the Big Bear Solar Observatory. The image at the upper left shows material erupting from a flare near the limb of the Sun on October 10th, 1971. The 4.2MB mpeg movie of this flare shows how material is blasted off of the Sun within just a few minutes. The image at the lower left shows a powerful flare observed on the disk of the Sun on August 7th, 1972. This is an example of a "two-ribbon" flare in which the flaring region appear as two bright lines threading through the area between sunspots within a sunspot group. (See the 2.2MB mpeg movie.) This particular flare, the "seahorse flare," produced radiation levels that would have been harmful to astronauts if a moon mission had been in progress at the time.

Flares and Magnetic Shear The key to understanding and predicting solar flares is the structure of the magnetic field around sunspots. If this structure becomes twisted and sheared then magnetic field lines can cross and reconnect with the explosive release of energy. In the image to the left the blue lines represent the neutral lines between areas of oppositely directed magnetic fields. Normally the magnetic field would loop directly across these lines from positive (outward pointing magnetic field) to negative (inward pointing magnetic field ) regions. The small line segments show the strength and direction of the magnetic field measured with the MSFC Vector Magnetograph. These lines and line segments overlie an image of a group of sunspots with a flaring region. The flare (the bright area) lies along a section of a neutral line where the magnetic field is twisted (or sheared) to point along the neutral line instead of across it. We have found that this shear is a key ingredient in the production of solar flares.

X FLARE to hit East Coast at 5 AM, Power Grids in Danger,Disruption in communication is possible

UPDATE : REVISED FORECAST: The CME launched toward Earth by yesterday's X-flare is moving faster than originally thought. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have revised their forecast accordingly, advancing the cloud's expected arrival time to 09:17 UT (5:17 am EDT) on Saturday, July 14th. Weekend auroras are likely. The sun has unleashed a violent solar flare Thursday afternoon known as an X-class flare, the most powerful sun flare possible. NASA and the Space Weather Prediction Center put out an alert Thursday advising that the giant sunspot known as AR1515 had become unstable, unleashing the solar flare directly towards earth. Because the flare erupted directly towards Earth, it has sent several waves of charged particles towards our planet bringing the likelihood of a northern lights display Friday night and causing a strong radio blackout for some high-frequency communications systems. In the alert announcing the X-class solar flare, SWPC officials said the sun storm could cause a "wide-area blackout" in the high-frequency radio communications. The best known case of this happening occurred in 1989 in Quebec, Canada. CMEs unleashed from the sun today were expected to arrive at Earth in the next two days, possibly amping up geomagnetic activity scientist say. Scientists are still researching the full impact potential of this event however, have noted this event will bring minor impacts over the United States. The best threat of widespread disruption in communication appears right now to be over higher latitudes. Flights may also have to be redirected further south to avoid communication malfunctions similar to the event in January of 2012. This type of solar flare are among the strongest to occur on the sun. Since the flare was directly tilted towards earth it could endanger satellites and interfere with communications signals worldwide. Flares have also been linked to damage to power system infrastructures across the world. Should you be worried? These events are actually more common then you think. While this particular event is significant, the worst impacts will occur over higher latitudes. Depending on the severity of the event, Maryland may experience a few issues with reception, GPS signals, and loss of cell service.

Gingrich keeps ringing the EMP alarm

Newt Gingrich, who recently tweeted that power outages in the D.C. area are only a small taste of what an electromagnetic pulse attack would look like, expands on the theme in a Washington Post op-ed today: Callista and I live in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, and, like many in the region, we lost power in the recent storms. The blackout, combined with a record heat wave, made homes nearly uninhabitable. The storm and heat were this region’s greater leveler: Rich or poor, urban or suburban, six-figure income or just barely getting by, we were all cast on the same strange shores.

Without power, the comforts of home become worthless. You sit in the sweltering heat, realizing you are living in a box that, without electricity, is a trap. You pray for the “juice” to return before your groceries go bad. You either make do in the heat or find refuge with friends who have electricity. I write this now because of my concern for national security and our power grid, which are susceptible to doomsday-level damage if hit by an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) strike or a major solar storm. It is almost unthinkable, yet possible, that an enemy could detonate a nuclear weapon over the atmosphere over the continental United States, triggering an electromagnetic pulse. This would short-circuit our power grid, taking power off­line for months, perhaps even years. The EMP threat has been a Gingrich hobbyhorse for some time. It's almost enough to make you nostalgic for the GOP primary season.

Sun unleashes strong X 1.4 class solar flare

Posted on July 12, 2012

July 12, 2012 –SPACE – Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because the sunspot was directly facing Earth at the time of the blast, this is a geoeffective event. Stay tuned for updates about possible CMEs and radio blackouts. The UV and X-ray pulse from the flare will have partially ionized Earth’s upper atmosphere on the dayside of our planet, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals. –Space Weather Video by SolarWatcher

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