Fed Has Bought More U.S. Gov’t Debt This Year Than Treasury Has Issued

If the Fed continues to purchase $45 billion in additional federal debt each month in 2013 it will buy up another $540 billion in federal debt this year alone


The CBO currently estimates that the federal deficit for fiscal 2013 will be $845 billion. If the Fed were to buy debt at a pace of $540 billion a year, and the Treasury were to issue it at $845 billion per year, the Fed would be buying the equivalent of about 64 percent of all debt the government issued.

As recently as calendar year 2007, the total debt of the United States increased by only about $549 billion, or roughly equal to the amount of debt the Fed plans to buy this year.

Currency Wars Return, 1930s Style: Who Will Lose Out?

The U.K. was the first to leave the gold standard on September 19, 1931 due to painfully high unemployment. Sterling depreciated, setting off a volatile chain of events with the U.S., Norway, Sweden, France and Germany all following suit.

Remember, one country's weak currency is another country's strong one: it's a zero sum game. In the past, currency wars have led to protectionism and capital controls, as well as tariffs as countries seek to protect their industries. Look what happened in the 1930s and 1970s when the U.S. finally abandoned the gold standard and devalued the dollar.

Why Currency Wars Might Be Coming

The rush to cheapen the yen and the dollar, which has left the euro appreciating, is creating headaches for policymakers all over the world. The Brazilians are furious at the Americans, since it has increased the cost of exporting goods for them. They already have a weak form of capital controls.

Other policymakers have had to cut interest rates to weaken their currencies.

The worry: This could become a serious issue and undermine the global recovery.